How to Recognize the Great Changes to Come in this Century
Zhang Yunling
March 3, 2019
如何认识百年大变局之变
Introduction
Note: The following translation is one of six entries in a roundtable discussion convened by two state think tanks in the spring of 2019. Participants were all eminent Chinese academics. Their task was to analyze the slogan “Great Changes Unseen in a Century.” A general introduction to the seminar and the slogan it discusses can be found here.
None of the scholars assembled for this seminar on “great changes unseen in a century” view the future more darkly than Zhang Yuling. A grand don in the Chinese study of international economics, Zhang is a full generation older than other seminar participants. After returning from his Cultural Revolution exile in the countryside, Zhang began to study economics, with a special focus on the economics of technology transfer. In the years since, Zhang has written widely on globalization, regional economic integration, and broader questions of international order. He has chaired or participated in a dozen foreign policy research groups and policy task forces, and served on the Foreign Relations Committee of the CPPCC, which is tasked with increasing Party influence and shaping narratives about China among foreign elites.1 Zhang’s decades of experience building Chinese influence in the world abroad likely shapes his apprehensions about China’s influence over its own future.
Like the other panelists in the seminar, Zhang describes the West as on a path of decline. He predicts that when the analysts of 2050 rank the world’s great powers, not even the most “venerable European nations… [will
] make the top five.” Already “the center of gravity for global power and development has shifted from Europe to Asia,” and this means that contours of the international order will no longer be decided by “traditional Western leadership” but “the guidance of the non-Western states.”
If this seems like a rosy outcome for China, Zhang argues that historical experience suggests otherwise. Failing hegemons are tempted to sustain faltering empires through conflict with rising powers. The last time world order crumbled, Zhang reminds his readers, the human race endured a bloom of revolutionary violence, two world wars, and global depression. To make matters worse, humankind now faces a threat that did not exist a century ago. Because of climate change we are “heading directly toward an existential crisis for humanity.” Only “mutual effort made possible by the mobilization of the international community, including developed Western countries,” can save China’s future, but Western decline means no such cooperation can be expected.
This contradiction is the engine of Zhang’s nightmare. The problems China will face in the next 50 years, he worries, “require strong international governance, but this is in conflict with predicted global changes.” Growing Chinese strength is insufficient to solve these problems, for “the deepening of globalization” and “the increasing decentralization of finance and technology” also “weaken the existing foundations for domination by a single country.” Zhang argues that if China advances towards the center of the world stage through the existing model of industrialization and development, it invites climate catastrophe; if China climbs to power on the existing pattern of armed hegemony, it invites catastrophic war.
Zhang holds out hope for the “possibility of a global order without hegemons,” a schema he associates with the Party-slogan “a community of common destiny for all mankind.” His hope is grounded in an ancient Chinese ideal. When Chinese intellectuals and Party officials inveigh against “hegemony” they invoke a term ba (霸) first used more than two millennia ago to refer to a ruling power that maintains its position through violence and subterfuge. In ancient Chinese thought the coercive order enforced by a hegemon was often contrasted with the order of the “true king,” which was attained by moral suasion.2 Zhang, like most Chinese, sees American leadership as an example of coercive hegemony. Zhang imagines China taking a different path toward global leadership. However, neither in his comments on Western hegemony nor in his warnings about the Western model of industrialization, does Zhang describe how China can avoid taking the path paved by Western powers. This may be the greatest source of Zhang’s unease.
—THE EDITORS
- Originally Written By
- Zhang Yunling
- Translated By
- Dylan Levi King
- Publisher
- Asia Pacific Security and Maritime Affairs
The Center has proposed that we are in the midst of great changes unseen in a century. This raises an important issue. It takes the turn of the millennium as a central division, separating the hundred years before and the hundred years after—that is, the last century and the present century. If the previous century ran from 1900 to 2000, then this century runs from 2000 to 2100. The basic considerations with this division are: first, the millennium serves as a temporal junction, linking what has gone before with what will come after, and, generally speaking, these periods of millennial transition are often times of significant change; second, the major events driving the great changes in this transitional period will have an influence on both China and the world.
中央提出我们处在百年未有的大变局,这是一个大命题。围绕新千年的上下100年,即上个百年和这个百年。上个百年如果是从1900年到2000年,这个百年就是从2000年新千年到2100年。这样划分的基本考虑是:其一,时间节点因素,是新千年转换,前后衔接,一般来说,新千年转换期往往是大变局时期;其二,推动转换期大变局的是大事件,影响世界也影响中国。
A number of major events occurred during the previous century: There were the First and Second World Wars, the October Revolution, the global communist movement that it triggered, the disintegration of the colonial system, the postwar reconstruction of the international order, and the spread of globalization. Generally speaking, looking at things from a global perspective, the first half of the decade and the second half of the decade were unalike. The first five decades was a time of great upheaval, with many major events occurring; the following five decades exhibited stable governance. In the postwar period, a global administrative system was established with the United Nations at its center. Owing to the period’s governance and stability, great progress was made in global development.
上个百年发生了许多大事:两次世界大战,“十月革命”及引发的世界共产主义运动,殖民主义体系瓦解,二战后的世界秩序重建,全球化大发展……一般地说,百年转换从世界的角度,前50年、后50年不同。前50年主要是动荡期,很多大事发生在那个时期;后50年呈现稳定治理期,二战以后,建立了以联合国为中心的世界管理体系,由于有了治理和稳定,世界得到大发展。
Speaking from the perspective of China, the year 1900 represents a painful beginning: the Eight-Nation Alliance entered Beijing and the great powers directly interfered in Chinese domestic politics.3 After the Second World War ended, New China was founded, the country’s downward spiral was halted, and Reform and Opening and rapid development were realized.
从中国角度讲,1900年是一个痛苦的开端:八国联军进北京,世界列强直接干预中国国内的政治。二战后,新中国成立,终结中国衰落的下行线,实现了改革开放和快速发展。
From the beginning of the millennium, a number of significant events have occurred. Observing this from a global perspective, the terrorist attack on America spurred a global counterterrorism movement, and there was also the 2008 financial crisis, as well as the rise of both protectionism and populism. Of course, there have been positives, such as the new technology revolution.
新千年开始后,发生了许多大事。从世界的角度观察,发生了美国遭受恐怖袭击带来的世界范围的反恐运动,还有2008年的国际金融危机,世界保护主义、民粹主义兴起等。当然,好的方面,则是新科技革命。
Speaking from the perspective of China, accession to the World Trade Organization in 2000 and entry into the rules-based global order represents a major event, which has had a lasting influence. China’s GDP exceeding a trillion USD was a turning point. China proposed the goal of achieving national rejuvenation in this century.
从中国的角度说,2000年中国加入世贸组织,以规则方式加入到世界体系,这是一个大事件,影响巨大。中国的经济总量按GDP计算第一次超过1万亿美元,是个转折点,中国提出了在这个百年中期实现民族复兴目标。
Looking at the trends for profound changes in this century, some have become quite clear:
这个百年的大变局趋势,有些已经很明显:
I. Relative Changes in the Configuration of Power
(一)力量对比格局
On the basis of integrating [multiple] forecasting models, the greatest change within the first fifty years of this century will be a change in the relative power of states. The general trend is for developing nations to achieve the predominant position by mid-century, accounting for 60% of global economic activity. This seems to herald a major transformation in the global development history. Following industrialization, Western nations maintained the predominant position, which makes the coming shift in the power structure very important in many aspects, including its impact on the institutional framework built during the previous transition, its influence on value systems, as well as its [impact on] various aspects of science and technology. We can analyze this problem by looking at many possible results. There is no shortage of integrated projections, since everyone is observing these changes to see how significant they might be.
按照综合的预测,这个百年前50年的最大的变化,就是力量对比。总的趋势是发展中国家力量到本世纪中期占主导地位,经济总量占世界的60%。这恐怕是世界发展近代史上一个重大的转变。西方工业化以后,西方国家一直占主导地位,这个格局变化从各个角度影响都是巨大的,包括上次转换中的制度构造,价值观影响,以及技术科学各个方面,我们可以从多种成果来分析这个问题。一些综合预测也不少,大家都在观察这场大变动到底影响有多大。
II. Changes in the relative strength of great powers
(二)大国力量对比
The majority of what are now called great powers will decline and be pushed aside by the middle of this century, with most of the venerable European nations not even making the top five. Looking at the composition of the great powers, we see the rise of nations from outside the community of Western superpowers. In global development the predominant [role] of the great powers is an important factor, meaning a change in the structure will be profound and far-reaching.
原来的所谓大国大部分衰退了,在本世纪中期以前被排挤出大国行列,老牌的欧洲国家大多连前五位都排不上。从大国结构角度看,是非西方大国的群体崛起。世界发展中,大国主导性很强,格局变化影响深远。
III. Changes in the relative strength of regions
(三)地区力量对比
The center of gravity for global power and development has shifted from Europe to Asia, and in particular Greater East Asia, which includes China, Japan, India, and Indonesia, which will all rank in the top four in terms of population and economic power.
世界的力量与发展重心从欧洲转到亚洲,亚洲集中在大东亚,包括中国、日本、印度、印度尼西亚至少位列前四的人口和经济力量。
Generally speaking, power shifts lead to unrest and war. The Thucydides Trap4 refers to irreconcilable conflict between a great power that wants to hold onto its status and a rising power. In the second half of the previous century, the major powers were America and the Soviet Union, which resulted in the Cold War. In this century, the major powers seem to be America and China, but is there any way to avoid history repeating itself? This is the critical question regarding the overall situation.
一般来讲,力量转换会发生大的动荡、大的战争。“修昔底德陷阱”讲的是守成大国与新兴大国之间不可调和的矛盾。上个百年后半期主要是美国与苏联,发生了冷战。这个百年看起来是美国与中国,但能不能避免历史重演呢?这是很关键的问题,事关大局。
The greatest impact of this power shift will be a change in leadership. It will move from traditional Western leadership to the guidance of the non-Western states. Since industrialization in Europe, the West has set the course for the development paradigm, value system, and the theories of international relations. What are the implications of non-Western leadership? Will it be inclusive or exclusive? How will it observe the world and orient itself? These questions merit scrutiny and research.
力量转换的最大影响是导向问题,由传统的西方导向到非西方导向。欧洲工业化以来,主要是西方导向,包括发展范式、价值观、国际关系理论等。非西方导向的含义是什么?是包容性还是排斥性?怎么观察和定位?这些都值得观察与研究。
Will a power shift lead to a decline in hegemony? Will the future bring new power struggles and new hegemons? People are not satisfied with the hegemonic order, but they are also worried about future power struggles and have misgivings over the possibility of a global order without hegemons. Looking back at history, the establishment of a hegemon invariably requires conflict—other states are beaten down [so that] your own power rises. It is unlikely that the future holds anything resembling the warfare of the previous century, so does that mean that humanity will see the end of hegemony?
力量转换导致霸权衰落,未来会出现争霸和形成新霸权吗?人们对霸权秩序不满意,但对争霸深表担心,对无霸权秩序充满疑虑。从以往的历史看,霸权的确立需要经过大战,把别国打下去,自己上来。未来的世界很难会发生类似上个百年的大战,会不会导致人类历史的霸权终结?
The deepening of globalization and the increasing decentralization of finance, technology, and so forth, may also weaken the existing foundations for domination by a single country. Since the establishment of the institutions of the nation-state, nation-states have been the foundation of international relations and the international order. Now, and especially in the future, the Internet will transcend nations; in all aspects, supranational forces are becoming stronger.
全球化会深化,未来经济、技术等的分散型导向也会削弱一国独霸的存在基础。从民族国家制度确立以来,民族国家是国际关系和国际秩序的基础。如今,特别是未来,互联网超越国家,各个方面的超国家力量越来越强。
Western industrialization created the model for the industrialization and modernization that propelled global development and allowed other countries to enter the ranks of industrialized nations. Currently, the catch-up model of modernization presents various problems; it has led to climate change, which threatens the existence of the human race. Material production-oriented industrialization, as long as it keeps pace with world population and consumption, is unsustainable. The planet cannot support ten billion people with the traditional industrialization model.
西方工业化创造工业化现代化模式,推动了世界的发展,让更多的国家步入工业化行列。现在,追赶型现代化模式出现了各种问题,导致了气候变化,威胁人类生存。物质生产为导向的工业化,随着世界人口和消费力的增加已经不能支撑。地球支撑不了100亿人的传统工业化模式。
The development paradigm must change, but there must be something to replace it. There must be a new dominant driving force. New views on development have been put forward, but, intellectually, there is a lack of consensus, and actions taken have lacked follow up. The Paris Agreement, for example, was the first joint pledge in human history to address climate change, but America withdrew, and there were limited means to enforce implementation.
发展范式需要转变,但转变需要新范式,需要主导型推动力量。尽管人们提出了新发展观,但在认知上缺乏共识,在行动上缺乏跟进。比如,《巴黎协定》,是人类历史上第一个应对气候的公约,但美国退出,落实起来缺乏手段。
In the first fifty years of this century, what is the power paradigm that will drag us into the future? The easiest solution would be to continue in our present pattern, but that heads directly toward an existential crisis for humanity. According to forecasts, there will be a three degree rise in temperature by 2050; if we cannot halt it there, we face disaster. Marx said: Your today is our tomorrow, and what we are remaking is the same.5
这个百年的前50年中,拉动未来发展的力量范式到底是什么?最容易的方法是延续现在的模式,但面临人类生存危机。据预测,到2050年,气温上升3度,如果不能制止上升,则导致灾难。马克思说过,你们的今天就是我们的明天,我们改造的和你们一样。
The biggest challenge to development is climate change, and the situation at present is not hopeful. In the first fifty years of this century, addressing the required paradigm shift in development will require strong international governance, but this is in conflict with predicted global changes. This is the greatest risk we face in this century of profound change; it’s a problem that must be addressed in all aspects.
发展的最大挑战是气候变化,现在看来不乐观。在这个50年,能不能解决发展范式转变的问题,需要非常强的国际治理,但这又与前面的国际转变相矛盾,这是百年变局的最大风险,问题涉及各个方面。
China’s own strategic plan is at odds with the global turbulence of this fifty year period. China’s unequivocal strategic orientation—achieving the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and comprehensive development by 2050—faces a series of challenges from these great global changes.
中国自身的战略设计与世界前50年的动荡期有矛盾。中国的明确战略定位是到2050年实现中华民族复兴的目标,成为完全的发达国家,这会遇到世界大变局的一系列挑战。
Does China have the ability to push the world to develop in a more positive direction? This is an important question. China has proposed the construction of a community of common destiny for mankind. In official documents from the Nineteenth National Party Congress, the official English translation is “community for a shared future,” which suggests an order based on peace and development. As the future largest country, the question is, what does China have to offer the world? This is an important question that must be considered not only by ourselves but also by the world. A community of common destiny for mankind is an ideal. There is a gap between the ideal and reality. Turning an ideal into reality requires effective and pragmatic actions, not only unilaterally by China, but through a mutual effort made possible by the mobilization of the international community, including developed Western countries.
中国有能力推动世界向好的方向发展吗?这是个大课题。中国提出了推动“人类命运共同体”建设。党的十九大文件英文翻译把“命运共同体”译为“community for a shared future”,直译过来就是“共享未来的共同体”,就是和平与发展的秩序。作为未来最大的国家,为世界带来什么,这个是个大命题,不仅我们自己,世界都关心。“人类命运共同体”是一个理想,理想与现实有距离,把理想变为现实需要卓有成效的实际行动,不仅是中国自身,也需要动员包括西方发达国家在内的国际社会共同努力。